Matchplug publishes NFL picks across the three markets that carry the market's liquidity: the point spread, the total (over/under), and the moneyline. Each pick shows the line we are taking, the number we make it, and the reasoning — because in a league where the spread is efficient to within about a point, the only useful thing a pick can tell you is where our number differs from the market's. NFL is a small-sample sport: seventeen regular-season games means one injury, one weather system or one turnover run swings a season, so we weight recent snap-count and personnel data over full-season records. Key numbers matter enormously here — 3 and 7 are the most common margins of victory, so a spread moving from -2.5 to -3.5 is a far bigger change than half a point suggests.
